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The latest article on my blog, Meticulous Musings, examines how well Democrats might perform in the US House in 2026.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/03/midterm-math-house-edition.html

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#Congress #Politics #US #USA #House #Elections #USPol

Between Trump’s War on Iran, Trump’s tariffs, and the murder of American citizens by agents of the federal government, things are not going well in Trump’s America.

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#Trump #War #Iran #Tariffs #ICE #Immigration #CPB #DHS

The horrors committed by an aspiring autocrat are bad for the country, but they also create a favorable political environment for Democrats in this year’s upcoming midterm elections.

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Today, we’re going to examine how well Democrats might perform in the US House in 2026.

In the process, we will discuss elections where Democrats have performed well in the US House, from 1990 to the present.

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Section: Baseline

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Democrats won 215 US House seats in 2024.

This will be the baseline for comparisons that discuss how many additional seats Democrats need to win in 2026 to perform as well as they have in previous elections, when Democrats performed well in the House.

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I will rely on a table of US House results for elections from 1990 to 2024, and its accompanying graphs, that I first published in "Republicans retain House control" in January 2025, about the results of the 2024 House elections.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/01/house-of-representatives.html

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#Congress #Elections #US #USA #Politics #USPol

I originally obtained the data in that table from Wikipedia, which I believe to be a reliable source for data about historical election results.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

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#Wikipedia #Politics #US #USA #Congress #Elections

This table shows how many seats Democrats, Republicans, and Independents won in the US House of Representatives, every two years, from 1990 to 2024.

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#Congress #House #Elections #Politics

I will also use the forecasts for US House races compiled by the Cook Political Report.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball publish forecasts for various races that describe how likely Democrats or Republicans are to win, using tossup, lean, and likely designations.

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The expert forecasts from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are free and open to the public.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-house/

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It’s a lot easier to use one of these resources for my political analysis, at a time, than to try to use both simultaneously.

I primarily used forecasts from Sabato’s Crystal Ball during my coverage of elections in 2024.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/11/my-2024-down-ballot-predictions.html

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This article will instead use forecasts from the Cook Political Report.

Here are the forecasts for US House races from the Cook Political Report, as of March 12, 2026.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

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Some of the races in the screenshot above are described as open seats, which means the elected official currently representing the district is not running for reelection, at least not in the district they currently represent.

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The results of the 2025 elections and the results of recent special elections indicate Democrats are positioned to perform well in the 2026 midterms.

Now, let’s explore just how well Democrats could do in 2026 in the US House, by examining several scenarios, in ascending levels of optimism for Democrats.

https://www.npr.org/2025/11/05/nx-s1-5599185/2025-election-results-georgia-pennsylvania-democrats-win

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This ongoing thread can be read as an article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/03/midterm-math-house-edition.html

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#Politics #US #Elections #Congress #USA #USPol

Section: The Bare Minimum

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